Thomas Friedman's Hot, Flat, and Crowded is a very thorough and thoughtful look at the environmental problems facing our planet today, what caused those problems, and what we can do to help solve them. Even if you only read parts of the book, it's well worth your time.
Our woes are outlined in the title: global warming (hot), a growing world middle class (flat), and an expanding world population (crowded). The first half of the book details the climactic crisis, both in America and abroad, how it's affecting us, and how we avoided dealing with it for so long. The second half discusses solutions.
A lot of our problems stem from America's addiction to gasoline. Beginning with Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, it seemed that any proposal that asked Americans to challenge themselves and make sacrifices by doing things like buying smaller, more fuel efficient cars was unacceptable.
Things didn't get much better in the 1990s. Friedman argues that our Congress was (and still is) under too much influence from oil and auto lobbies. In the late 90s, the Clinton Administration was hampered in its attempts to improve the fuel efficiency of American cars.
Congressional Roadblocks
Congress, strongly influenced by the three big automakers and the United Auto Workers, did less than they could have to tighten U.S. fuel economy standards for new cars. So, we were stuck at 27.5 miles per gallon. Not until 2007 was the legislative bar raised to 35 m.p.g., but the effective date is 2020. Europe and Japan are already near the level we aspire to reach 11 years from now!
But what about China, the mid-East, Russia, and Mexico? The author makes the point that these countries are becoming bigger and bigger oil consumers. They have a way to go before they catch up with the gas guzzling US, but they appear to be on their way.
American Energy Hogs
A 2007 report says that the average American consumes enough energy to meet the biological needs of 100 people. The average citizen in other developed economies uses enough energy to sustain about 50 people.
Demand for oil is growing fastest in China and India. Between now and 2030, about two-fifths of growth in world oil demand will come from those two countries. If enough citizens in China, India and elsewhere “strive to live like us”, as the author suggests they are doing, it will radically affect oil availabilities to the U.S. market.
Some energy experts say that higher demand in countries that are currently net oil exporters, such as Russia, Mexico, and the OPEC countries could cut their total oil exports by 2 to 3 million barrels per day by the end of this decade, according to Friedman. That could potentially drive fossil fuel prices much higher. I can all too easily imagine a gallon of gasoline costing $6 or $7 in 2015--just around the time our youngest daughter starts driving. This alone is one big reason to pursue alternative energy sources.
Huge Risks
But the other much bigger reason is the rise in CO2 emissions and potential disturbances to our climate. Experts say that the risks to our climate are huge if CO2 reaches twice present level before the industrial revolution and, if we don't do anything, we'll likely pass that doubling level by mid-century.
Below are just some of the solutions presented in the book, but they go well beyond changing a few light bulbs. They require enormous financial investment and present a huge challenge to our new administration, the auto and power industries, and us:
- Halt all cutting and burning of forests.
- Double fuel efficiency of two billion cars from 30 million mpg to 60 mpg.
- Drive two billion cars only 5,000 miles per year instead of 10,000, at 30 mpg.
- Raise efficiency at 1,600 large coal-fired plants from 40 to 60 percent.
- Replace 1,400 coal-fired electric plants with natural gas powered plants.
- Install carbon-capture equipment at coal plants to make hydrogen for hydrogen-powered cars.
- Add twice today's global nuclear capacity to replace coal-based electricity
- Increase wind power 40-fold to displace coal-fired power and 80-fold to make hydrogen for clean cars.
- Increase solar power 700-fold to displace all coal-fired power.
- Drive two billion cars on ethanol, using 1/6 of world cropland to grow the needed corn.
- Curt electricity use in homes, offices, and stores by 25 percent, and cut carbon emissions by the same amount.
Considering our nation's current financial quagmire, I'm not sure how all this will be paid for. But in the meantime, there are some things that can be done to curb gasoline consumption and reduce our carbon dioxide output.
Gasoline Addiction
I was particularly interested in the experts' proposed solutions to the U.S. gasoline addiction. They include putting a floor (minimum) price on gasoline and crude oil, so that refiners can be more sure of their profits and thus more willing to invest money in alternative energy.
Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute, proposes a “freebate” in which new-car owners either pay a fee or get a rebate depending on the size of the vehicle they purchase. Friedman quotes Lovins: “The increased price spread encourages a buyer to buy an efficient model of the size he or she prefers. The buyer saves money; automakers make more profit; national security improves.”
Hefty Tax
There are other ideas, but one Friedman favors is a hefty tax on gasoline. “It's hard to imagine anything with more a positive impact than increasing the gasoline tax in the U.S., where gasoline still costs less than half of what it does in Europe.”
The advantages of a much higher gasoline tax are many, according to the author, and include: lower gasoline consumption, increased use of fuel-efficient vehicles, fewer dollars sent to petrodictators, better air quality, reduced global warming and a strengthening of the dollar and the balance of payments. Plus the U.S. Government would boost its income and have more to invest in alternative technologies.
What do you think about a hefty gasoline tax? I'd love to know.
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